The power of expectation

“To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.” Steve Prefontaine

A few weeks ago I revisited an article about the fear of missing out that I had written long before Substack was a thing. It got little attention when first published under conditions of almost total secrecy, so I thought it deserved another look. This present article falls into the same category.

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Expectation often goes unnoticed as a psychological factor, yet it forms the basis of our confidence and mindset, and is one of the key components of self-efficacy. Internally, confidence in our ability to perform a skill or task leads to a high expectation of success. Externally, others place expectations on us based on age, perceived ability, and performance history—the social support component of self-efficacy.

This is not just talk, interesting…but, so what? I often observed this concept in action when teaching swimming to young children. It was more effective to have a classmate demonstrate a new skill than if I did it myself. Young children (5-, 6-, and 7-year-olds) respond better when they see another student like them who can perform a new skill. This boosts their expectation of success, and even if they make mistakes and can’t perform properly, they are at least willing to give it a try. For a more detailed exploration of this idea, refer to “The power of ‘not yet’.”

Swimming instructors can tell you, many kids will say they “can’t” do certain skills when they first learn them. This is probably because they’re afraid to try something in what they think is a dangerous place. But if they see one of their friends doing it, it doesn’t seem so hard anymore. It’s still challenging, but not impossible.

Key components of self-efficacy: Expectation, past experience, social support, emotional state

While this strategy is effective in instructional settings, it can also be applied to high-performance situations. Expecting athletes to rise to a challenge, helps them focus their efforts on the specific tasks they need to accomplish. In general, athletes are more likely to accept a challenge (goal) when they feel a sense of purpose and motivation.

1. They determine whether the goal aligns with their skills and conditioning. While it may demand significant effort to achieve, it falls within the realm of what is considered ‘doable’. This concept is also integral to the flow state, which provides intriguing insights for training and competition.

2. They are aware that others have successfully achieved the goal in the past, which is particularly effective when the goal involves meeting some kind of qualifying standard. “Others have done it, so can I.”

I witnessed #2 in action while working with my sport association’s annual swimming championship. It was an age-group competition with qualifying times for each event that athletes had to achieve before registering. Over the years, the number of athletes who qualified grew so large that the meet became almost unmanageable. The sheer number of athletes at the meet created poor competitive conditions, we had to do something about it.

Our only option was to make it harder to qualify, so we adjusted the qualification times making each one faster than those from previous years. Athletes would have to swim faster if they wanted to earn the right to compete in next year's championship. This would reduce the number of athletes who qualified and the meet would be back to a more manageable number of competitors. Or so we thought.

The following year, when the entries began arriving, I noticed something peculiar. Contrary to what we anticipated, the number of entries was larger, not smaller. Teams that had only 10 swimmers in the meet the year before now had 20. Teams that had 80 swimmers the previous year now entered over 100. Athletes were swimming faster than ever, and the meet grew even larger. Making the times more challenging somehow motivated young athletes to achieve greater heights.

This response to ‘raising the bar’ emphasizes how expectations can shape behavior. For instance, athletes were expected to achieve the new, faster times to participate in the championship meet. As coaches, we believed that making the qualifying criteria more stringent would result in a smaller field, but the athletes perceived it differently. They saw it as a challenge, which many responded to in the manner we anticipated—by swimming faster.

Setting high expectations is an effective motivator. If we expect less of our athletes we disrespect their efforts and limit their potential. As Steve Prefontaine wisely said, “To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.”

Of course, there’s a practical limit to what this strategy can achieve, and it must be employed judiciously. But over several years we were able to get the size of the championship meet under control by manipulating the qualifying times.

Understanding self-efficacy theory and the components of the flow state can help coaches and sport associations make informed judgments about the appropriate expectations and their likelihood of producing positive results. We should never underestimate the power of expectations.